November 26, 2022

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USDA tweaks US sugar provide forecasts | 2021-08-13

WASHINGTON — The US Office of Agriculture in its August 12 Globe Agricultural Provide and Desire Estimates report made primarily insignificant, envisioned alterations to its sugar offer forecasts for this 12 months and for 2021-22 with no changes designed in domestic sugar use forecasts for possibly yr.

US 2020-21 (ending Sept. 30) sugar generation was forecast at 9,234,000 brief tons, raw price, down 51,945 tons, or .6%, from the July forecast but up 1,085,000 tons, or 13%, from 2019-20. Beet sugar output for the latest year was forecast at 5,063,000 tons, down 51,000 tons, or 1%, from July and cane sugar outturn was forecast at 4,171,000 tons, down 1,000 tons.

The reduce beet sugar forecast was “mostly on a lower share of crop 12 months 2021-22 beet sugar creation taking place in August and September 2021,” the USDA stated. “That portion of processor-reported decreases stemming from later on-than-anticipated harvest start out dates is expected to be accounted for in the 2021-22 fiscal calendar year.”

Total sugar imports for 2020-21 ended up forecast at 3,177,000 tons, up 38,607 tons from July as lower imports from Mexico have been additional than offset by slightly bigger tariff rate quota and other method (re-export) imports.

“The raw sugar TRQ shortfall is lessened by 11,134 tons to 75,721 just after entry of sugar from the Philippines previously envisioned not to enter,” the USDA reported. “Re-export imports are amplified by 45,000 tons to 245,000 on the import tempo from Customs and Border Safety ACE details. Imports from Mexico that have been component of the ‘other sugar export limit’ maximize built in April are reduced by 17,527 tons because of to inadequate materials of under 99.2 pol sugar in Mexico.”

“There are no coverage announcements concerning imports at this time,” the USDA said.

Whole sugar offer for 2020-21 was forecast at 14,028,000 tons, down 14,000 tons from the July forecast.

Exports for 2020-21 ended up greater by 10,000 tons to 45,000 tons centered on pace to day.

There were no alterations created to domestic use forecasts for 2020-21, with deliveries for meals use at 12,125,000 tons, down .8% from 2019-20. Ending stocks had been forecast of 1,753,000 tons, down 24,000 tons from July, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio at 14.3%, down from 14.5% in July.

Changes to 2021-22 forecasts were being incorporated adjustments from 2020-21. Starting stocks were reduced 24,000 tons. Production was forecast at 9,048,000 tons, up 40,000 tons from July dependent on beet sugar at 5,078,000 tons, up 45,000 tons, and cane sugar at 3,970,000 tons, down 5,000 tons centered on reduce output in Texas.

There have been no improvements for forecast imports, exports or domestic use for 2021-22.

Full sugar supply for 2021-22 was forecast at 13,937,000 tons, up 16,000 tons from the July forecast.

Ending stocks had been forecast at 1,672,000 tons, up 16,000 tons from July, boosting the stocks-to-use ratio to 13.6% from 13.5%.

Variations in forecasts for Mexico for both of those this calendar year and upcoming 12 months also had been minimal. For 2020-21, sugar output was approximated at 5,715,000 tonnes, precise excess weight, up 7,000 tonnes from July, exports at 1,357,000 tonnes, down 9,000 tonnes, and domestic use at 4,405,000 tonnes, up 14,000 tonnes. Ending stocks for this 12 months were being forecast at 916,000 tonnes, up 3,000 tonnes from the July estimate. For following calendar year, creation was unchanged at 5,809,000 tonnes. Exports ended up reduced 14,000 tonnes, offset by a like increase in domestic use. Ending stocks were being lifted 3,000 tonnes to 916,000 tonnes.